June 23rd, 2002


Is it real?

There's a worrying report of Al Qaeda (which is, oddly, pronounceddifferently by almost every news agency. How the heck is it supposedto be pronounced?) on CNN.com. It claims more attacks are on theway. It's purportedly on its way to some worldwide Arabic television.I find myself wondering if it's real -- Given our understanding ofthe way the CIA/FBI operated in the past, it would not surprise me tosee them faking things like this. The news is just a bit too convenientfor BushJr. Why does the idiot son of a warmonger get all the excitementover a conflict raised over something that's been going on for manydecades? On the other hand, if it's real, it is indeed something tobe greatly concerned about. I don't want to dismiss the message if itturns out to be real. How can I know? I guess I can't -- withoutadditional data, there's no way to solidly distinguish the twopotential realities given the data I have. I thirst to know.

The ability to say "I don't know" when one doesn't is something sorelymissing from most people, grown or not. People overstate the strength oftheir conclusions too often.

She was out of town yesterday. I find myself missing her a lot. I lookforward to seeing her today.